EURO 2008: I support ITALIA...

There is only one prediction it is safe to make about Euro 2008 and that is that England will not win it. There is still just about time for a war to break out between Spain and Portugal and Carlos Queiroz seems to be doing his best to start one, but even in the unlikely event of England being drafted in as late replacements for squabbling Iberians, they still won’t win it. It is history that repeats itself, not fairy tales.

Given the history of the tournament in its modern form, with Denmark coming in from the beach to surprise everyone in 1992 (after Yugoslavia’s civil war led to their expulsion) and Greece boring opponents into submission four years ago, it is clear that the major nations, the ones that might be assumed to start as favourites, do not always get their own way. Sometimes they do -- all the big guns except England have won it at least once -- and although it is fair to point out that both Italy and Spain won only the old version of the tournament, when barely a handful of teams took part in the finals, both those countries have been runners-up in more recent memory.

The tournament was probably at its best in the 1980s, when few would deny that victories by West Germany, France and Holland were achieved by teams representing the cutting edge of European football at the time. Since then the Euros have been overshadowed, as has so much else, by globalisation and the rise of the Champions League.

Once seen as second only to the World Cup in terms of prestige and prominence, now that the World Cup itself is struggling to compete with the global annual event the Champions League has become, the Euros have been slightly downgraded. Not quite an end-of-season kick-about, but not really the stuff of dreams either. These days a lot seems to depend on the first match. A good result can give a team unexpected confidence. A bad one can put players and supporters straight into holiday mode.

The other factor that makes modern Euros a bit of a lottery is that 16 top teams divided into four groups makes for some spicy competition from the start. There are no teams equivalent to Trinidad & Tobago or Costa Rica here. The weakest teams of the 16 are arguably Austria and Switzerland and even they should be boosted by the advantage of playing at home. Still, there could be no joint hosts left by the knockout stages, which would be a first, and at least one team from France, Holland and Italy will have to leave early as well. Ordinarily one might identify all three of those nations as potential semi-finalists, yet all three find themselves with Romania in Group C, from which only two teams can emerge.

As World Cup finalists in 2006 France and Italy might be strongly fancied again, although even if both survive from their meeting in Zurich in the final group game, one will still have to knock the other out en route to the final. A repeat of Berlin in Vienna on June 29 is impossible.

That being the case, this correspondent’s money will be on Italy going further than France. They are reigning world champions, they have not won the European Championship since 1968 and they would dearly like to do what France did in 2000 and add lustre to a somewhat unexpected world crown by backing it up with another tournament win. Especially as Italy were the side defeated in the Rotterdam final of 2000, by a sudden-death goal, a rule that Uefa have quite rightly since scrapped as a way of deciding drawn games.

Italy have all the experience and motivation they need. They have possibly the best goalkeeper in the competition in Gianluigi Buffon, a more than capable defence and a coach, Roberto Donadoni, who is not slavishly defence-minded. They may not score hatfuls of goals, but Italy cannot be dismissed lightly.

Other fancied teams include Portugal, which reached the final last time; Spain, which are always fancied but never seem able to get their act together in tournaments; Croatia, mainly on the strength of how easily they beat England; and, inevitably, Germany.

Portugal’s fortunes seem to depend too much on their star player and, as Cristiano Ronaldo will have one or two other things on his mind this summer, it may be unsafe to assume he will light up Austria and Switzerland as he lit up the English season. He was beginning to look tired before the Champions League final and may not be able to live up to his billing.

Croatia should be good enough to get out of their group at the expense of Poland and Austria, although they could struggle for goals thereafter in the sad absence of Eduardo. Ditto Germany, apart from the bit about Eduardo, except that if you win Group B, as Germany easily could, you may then have to play only two from Turkey/Czech Republic/Switzerland/Portugal/Croatia to reach the final.

In other words, the Germans have lucked into the easy half of the draw again. They can’t possibly meet Italy, France or Holland until the final. And they are practically playing at home.

So, given that France and Holland are not quite the powerhouses they once were, I’m going for Italy to beat Germany in the final.